NIC's new report is out

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Público reminded me yesterday that the new NIC report is out, showing what the world will likely look like in 2030. The entire report as a pdf is here, and Público's summary of the main points is:

China will overtake the United States in economic terms, but there will be no hegemonic power. This concentration of power will be destroyed by regular citizens as a new middle class emerges. The consumption of basic resources, such as water and food, will skyrocket. The different climate will aggravate challenges the world faces. Thus will be the world in 2030 according to the National Intelligence Council, an advisory body to the US government for strategic issues.

"Asia will overtake North America and Europe in global power based on GDP, population, military expenditures and investment in technology...China will probably have the largest economy, surpassing the US a few years before 2030....but China will not replace the US on a global level. Being the largest economic power is important, but it is not always the largest economic power that necessarily becomes a superpower...For the first time, the largest part of the world's population will not be poor, and the middle class will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries."

The NIC report is intentionally published every four years, at the beginning of a new presidential term in the EU. It is a type of prospective guide to aid the administration in making strategic decisions.
In short, the US will be first among equals. Such a future is fertile ground for IALs, by the way. Much much better for them than the mid- to late 1990s when English seemed a step away from world domination, the US was about a decade and a half away from paying off the entire debt, and very little was being spent on overseas military adventures.

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